GW7 Fixture Analysis: City’s Run Is Kind, Everton’s Is Not

Ten matches make up Gameweek 7: Everton host Chelsea at lunchtime on Saturday, Manchester City host Ipswich Town, Leeds host Manchester United, and Tottenham host Coventry City on Monday night. There is no break to hide behind this time. Gameweeks 7 to 10 run on consecutive weekends, and the second and final international break of 2026 arrives ahead of Gameweek 11, so the fixture list matters more than usual for the next four rounds. It is also the week to check whether last month’s fixture advice survived contact with the results.

A kind fixture list is only worth something if the team on the right side of it can score.

The Best Run: Manchester City

City share the kindest five-game run in the league on FPL’s own ratings, averaging 2.60 across Ipswich at home, Aston Villa away, Brighton at home, Nottingham Forest away and Fulham at home. None of the five rates above a 3. The run ends at Arsenal in Gameweek 12, which gives it a convenient edge. City arrive with six wins from six, 16 goals scored, and a 3-0 win at Liverpool in which Haaland, Doku and Cherki all scored and Donnarumma kept a clean sheet. The attacking assets are the obvious buys. The goalkeeper, at 5.5m and roughly 7.5 percent ownership, is the quiet one.

The Sleeper Run: Chelsea

Chelsea’s official ratings look ordinary, around 3.0 across the first five: Everton away, Tottenham at home, Manchester United at home, Sunderland away and Leeds at home. A ratings model that grades attack and clean sheets separately calls it the kindest run for attackers anywhere in the league, and the logic holds. Tottenham have scored three goals in six matches, Manchester United have won once, and Sunderland have conceded 12. Chelsea have scored 15 in six, five of them on Saturday against Bournemouth, with Joao Pedro on five league goals. This is an attack run only. Their own defence has shipped 13, and none of these fixtures is likely to fix that.

The Worst Run: Everton

Everton, Liverpool and Manchester United have the toughest runs on the same scale, and Everton’s is the clearest case. Chelsea at home, Arsenal away, Newcastle away, Coventry at home and Brentford away average 3.4 over five matches, and only the Coventry game rates as soft. They are also unbeaten, with two wins and four draws, and sit fifth. The run is an obstacle for the team, and a good test of whether a side without a single defeat can keep going when the fixtures stop helping. For FPL, it argues for caution: one-week pickings such as Dewsbury-Hall at home to Chelsea, not long-term holds.

The Runs That Aren’t: Tottenham and Coventry

Tottenham and Coventry each average 2.60 across the next five gameweeks, the same as City, and on Monday night they play each other. Tottenham’s run includes three fixtures rated 2, against Coventry, Crystal Palace and Ipswich. They have no wins, three goals in six matches and sit 19th. Coventry beat Newcastle 4-1 on Monday, their second win of the season, but have conceded 11, and a ratings model that grades clean sheets separately calls theirs the kindest run in the league. A kind fixture list does not repair a defence that concedes two a game. Both are fixture-based traps until the results change.

What This Means for Transfers

Manchester City remain the clearest fixture hold, and their attackers and goalkeeper are the straightforward way to use it. Chelsea attackers are the value version of the same idea, with the usual warning about their defence. Everton assets are one-week punts, not holds, and Liverpool and Manchester United assets sit in the same tough-run group with Liverpool’s injury list making them harder to own. Newcastle is a useful reminder that a fixture list is only a forecast: the September pick for best run lost 4-1 at Coventry on Monday, its second 4-1 defeat of the season. Let the fixtures do the filtering, then let the results confirm it.