GW4 Fixture Analysis: Newcastle’s Run Is the Cleanest in the League

Ten matches make up Gameweek 4: Chelsea host Hull City, Liverpool host Fulham, Arsenal travel to Sunderland, and Manchester United host Manchester City in the derby, among them. But the more useful exercise this week is looking past Saturday to the six-gameweek window through Gameweek 9, where the fixture swings that actually decide transfers start to show up, and where a couple of last week’s calls need updating now that the schedule beyond the international break is confirmed.

A single green fixture is a captaincy option. A run of them is a transfer target.

The Best Six-Gameweek Run (GW4-9): Newcastle

Newcastle’s schedule from here is about as soft as it gets: away at Leeds, home to Hull City, away at Coventry, home to Aston Villa, away at Crystal Palace, then home to Everton. Six matches, and not one of them against a side currently inside the top half. This is the cleanest run in the league over this window, for attackers and defenders alike, and it’s cheap to buy into relative to what Liverpool or Arsenal assets cost for a similar fixture swing.

Crystal Palace’s run holds up well too, just not quite as cleanly as it looked last week. Ipswich at home this week, then Leeds away, Nottingham Forest at home, Brighton away and Newcastle at home all sit on the right side of the fixture list, but the run closes with a trip to Tottenham in Gameweek 9, the one genuine step up inside the window. Treat Palace as a five-week window rather than a six-week one when building around it.

The Worst Six-Gameweek Run (GW4-9): Ipswich Town

Ipswich’s run is the roughest in the league across this stretch: away at Crystal Palace this week, away at Everton, home to Fulham, away at Manchester City, home to Nottingham Forest, then away at Hull City. Two of the six are genuinely winnable, against Fulham and Hull, but the Manchester City trip sits right in the middle of the window and the two away fixtures either side of it against sides with something to prove make this a schedule to build around rather than target. Not a squad to avoid outright, since they’ll still have low-owned differential value if they spring an upset, but not a schedule to plan transfers into.

What This Means for Transfers

Newcastle are the clearest fixture-swing buy heading into Gameweek 4 and beyond, both attacking and defensive assets, without paying Liverpool or Arsenal prices for the privilege. Crystal Palace remains a strong budget target but with a clearer sell-by date now that Gameweek 9’s trip to Tottenham is confirmed. Liverpool’s near-term fixtures are soft, Fulham at home this week and Bournemouth away next, but this is not the six-week open runway it looked like a week ago: Manchester City visit Anfield in Gameweek 6 and Arsenal follow in Gameweek 9, both worth planning around rather than ignoring. Ipswich remain the clearest avoid on the schedule alone, Manchester City away sitting in the middle of an already difficult run. Let the schedule do the filtering before the eye test does.