GW9 Transfer Suggestions: Sell Pedro, Buy Jackson, and a Spurs Defender

This week’s transfer market has been written by one thigh. Joao Pedro has been sold by about 1.18 million managers, more than three times anyone else, after Xabi Alonso ruled him out for a few weeks. Calafiori, Saka, Bruno Fernandes and Cherki follow him out. Nicolas Jackson, Marcus Tavernier, Alexander Isak, Evanilson and Ezri Konsa lead the purchases, and all five have already risen in price. The deadline is back on Saturday morning, which leaves two more nights of price changes. The question, as always, is which of the popular moves still have points ahead of them.

A million managers selling the same player are usually right. A million buying the same replacement are usually early.

Bring In: Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa, £6.8m)

Jackson is the straight swap for Pedro, a full 1.0m cheaper, and the most-bought player of the week with about 974,000 transfers in. He scored twice against Manchester City for 13 points, has four goals this season and has scored in three of the last four gameweeks. Ollie Watkins has joined Al Hilal, which leaves the centre-forward role to Jackson, and he is second on Villa’s penalty list. Villa’s next five average 2.8: Fulham at home on Saturday, then Manchester United away, Sunderland at home, Ipswich away and Everton at home. The caveat is the finishing. Four goals from 1.83 expected goals, two of them from 0.37 on Saturday, is a rate that comes down. Buy him for the role and the run, not for a repeat of last week.

Bring In: Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth, £6.4m)

Tavernier has five goals from 3.61 expected goals, has scored in five of eight gameweeks, and scored again at Old Trafford for ten points. He has started all eight matches, is third on Bournemouth’s penalty list, and is owned by 20.1 percent after about 686,000 managers bought him this week. Bournemouth host Leeds, then go to Ipswich, host Nottingham Forest and visit Fulham. Leeds have conceded six all season, so the first step of the run is the hardest. The three after it are not.

Bring In With Caution: Evanilson (Bournemouth, £6.2m)

For Pedro owners who want to keep more money in the bank, Evanilson frees 1.6m and has scored in three straight gameweeks, with three goals and four assists this season. He was on this site’s differential list last week and returned six. The caution is twofold. He does not take Bournemouth’s penalties, and Eli Junior Kroupi, who does when fit, is back in training, though Marco Rose says he is not ready to start. He is also owned by 9.4 percent now and rising, so the differential case has gone. What is left is a forward in form on a good run, which is still a reason to buy.

Budget Watch: Jan Paul van Hecke in Defence

Tottenham have the kindest five-week run in the league, averaging 2.4, starting with Crystal Palace at home on Saturday. Van Hecke costs 4.9m, is owned by 8.0 percent, has played every minute of the season, and has 73 defensive contributions, which puts him close to the ten a match that earns defenders two extra points. He has also scored once. Spurs have conceded ten and kept three clean sheets, including at Stamford Bridge last weekend. Palace have conceded 19. If Calafiori misses Anfield, this is the kind of cheap defender who covers him without spending the money you need for a forward.

Consider Moving On

Pedro is the decision most managers face. He misses Manchester United and Sunderland at the least, then the international break, and Alonso’s own estimate puts his return after it. That is two blanks and a falling price. Holding is defensible only if your bench covers both weeks and you have nothing else to fix. Saka has no return date and is falling too. Bruno Fernandes has a form figure of 0.7, was dropped last week, and is the fade in this week’s Captain Recommendations, so 11.7m is a lot to keep tied up in him.

Cherki is the closer call. He scored nothing in 45 minutes at Villa Park, started Wednesday’s cup tie, and one predicted lineup leaves him out against Brighton. He is owned by 38.2 percent and his price has held so far. Wait for City’s team news if you can, and sell if he is not in it. Calafiori is a wait as well: 75 percent, a hip problem, and Arsenal’s pre-match press conference still to come.

Price changes run overnight, and Jackson and Tavernier have already risen by 0.2m each this week. Anything on the rising list is worth buying sooner rather than later. Deadline is 11:00 GMT on Saturday, 31 October, ninety minutes before Chelsea host Manchester United.