GW9 Fixture Analysis: Spurs Have the Run, Brighton Turn the Corner

Gameweek 9 opens at 12:30 GMT on Saturday, when Chelsea host Manchester United, and closes on Monday night at St James’ Park. Last week’s fixture calls split down the middle. Leeds’ run began with a clean sheet at Sunderland, and Brighton’s problem arrived on schedule with a 2-0 defeat at Anfield. Aston Villa, the swing this column said to buy a week late, beat Manchester City instead. The miss was Chelsea’s attack run, which began with a 2-0 home defeat to Tottenham. This week the five-game window moves to Gameweeks 9 to 13, which straddles the November international break, and the kindest run now belongs to the side that just won at Stamford Bridge.

Tottenham have the best run in the league and five home goals in four matches. The fixtures are an offer. The team has to accept it.

The Best Run: Tottenham

Spurs average 2.4 on the official ratings across Crystal Palace at home, Leeds away, Ipswich at home, Sunderland away and Fulham at home. Nothing on that list is rated above a 3, and three of the five are rated 2. Palace, the first of them, have conceded 19, the most in the division. Ipswich have conceded 16 and are one of two sides without a clean sheet. The defence is the part that works: Spurs have conceded ten, kept three clean sheets, and just won 2-0 at Chelsea. Micky van de Ven, Jan Paul van Hecke and Antonin Kinsky are the obvious ways in, and Kinsky is already owned by 15 percent.

The attack is the caveat, and it is a large one. Spurs have scored eight in eight, and at home the record reads 0-2, 0-0, 2-3 and 3-1: five goals in four matches. No Spurs attacker is owned by more than 2.3 percent of managers, which tells you what the market thinks of them. Buy the defence. Treat the attackers as differentials, which is how Sandro Tonali appears in this week’s Differential Picks.

The Attack Runs: Aston Villa and Bournemouth

Villa and Bournemouth both average 2.8. Villa have Fulham and Sunderland at home, Manchester United and Ipswich away, and Everton at home. They have won their last two, at Newcastle and at home to City, and Nicolas Jackson scored twice in the second of them. With Ollie Watkins sold to Al Hilal, the central role is his. Bournemouth host Leeds, then go to Ipswich, host Nottingham Forest, visit Fulham and host Brighton. They have just won 3-0 at Old Trafford, and Marcus Tavernier has five goals. The difference is the first fixture: Leeds have conceded six all season, so Bournemouth’s run starts with its hardest step.

The Worst Runs: Brentford and Newcastle

Brentford and Newcastle share the toughest average, 3.6. Brentford host Nottingham Forest this week, which is fine, and then go to Brighton, host Everton, visit Manchester United and host Arsenal. Newcastle host Everton on Monday, then visit Fulham, host Arsenal, go to Brighton and host Manchester United. Newcastle’s problem matters more for ownership. Lewis Hall is owned by 20.5 percent and Yoane Wissa by 11.2 percent, and Wissa played 13 minutes last weekend. Fulham, Liverpool and Manchester United are next at 3.4, and Liverpool’s run starts with Arsenal on Sunday.

The Runs That Aren’t: Coventry and Ipswich

Coventry and Ipswich both average 2.6, the second-kindest in the league. Coventry have conceded 15 and sit 19th. Ipswich have conceded 16 and have not kept a clean sheet all season. A kind schedule for a bad defence is a schedule of opponents who have to come and score, and the sides playing them are the ones to look at: Sunderland visit Coventry this week, and Hull host Ipswich. Last week’s version of this section said the same about Coventry, and they lost 1-0 at home to Fulham.

What This Means for Transfers

Tottenham defenders are the cleanest fixture buy of the week. Villa and Bournemouth attackers are the best attacking ones, with Jackson and Tavernier already the two most-bought players in the game. Brighton assets are holds through Saturday and buys after it. Newcastle and Brentford players are worth moving on if you were thinking about it anyway. Arsenal’s run averages 3.2 and starts at Anfield, but their League Cup exit at Fleetwood means one fewer midweek match before the break, which is no help to their attackers this week and some help to their legs. The fixture list narrows the shortlist. The defensive numbers decide what is left on it.