GW9 Differential Picks: Manzambi, Rayan and the Spurs Midfielder Who Wins the Ball

Last week’s three differentials returned 1, 6 and 3. Phil Foden played 45 minutes at Villa Park for one point. Evanilson scored at Old Trafford, his third straight gameweek with a goal, and the market has since caught up: about 366,000 managers bought him this week and his price has risen. Alex Iwobi managed three in Fulham’s 1-0 win at Coventry, where the goal came from Oscar Bobb instead. One goal from three picks is a quiet week for this column. This week’s list is two midfielders and a third who earns his points without the ball, each owned by fewer than one in twenty managers.

A differential that everyone buys on Friday was a differential on Thursday.

Johan Manzambi (Aston Villa, home vs Fulham)

Manzambi costs 6.1m and is owned by 4.9 percent of managers. He has two goals and two assists in only 319 minutes, from 1.50 expected goals and 0.57 expected assists, a rate of 0.58 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes. He has started only four of eight, partly because of the calf problem that made him a 75 percent doubt last week. He came through 65 minutes against City, and the scan was reported as positive.

The case is Villa’s form and their fixtures. They have won their last two league matches, at Newcastle and at home to City, and their next five average 2.8 on the official ratings: Fulham and Sunderland at home, Manchester United and Ipswich away, then Everton at home. The Fulham match is the 20:00 GMT kick-off on Saturday, so you will know most of the round’s results before he plays. About 179,000 managers have already bought him, so he may not stay a differential for long.

Rayan (Bournemouth, home vs Leeds)

Rayan scored at Old Trafford for ten points and is owned by 1.9 percent at 6.3m. That was his first league goal of the season, from 2.44 expected goals, the widest gap between chances and goals of any Bournemouth attacker. He has started all eight matches and played 702 of a possible 720 minutes, so the place is not the question. He also recorded 17 defensive contributions at Old Trafford, which is unusual for a wide forward and suggests the bonus points will keep coming even in weeks when he does not score.

The caution is this week’s opponent. Leeds have conceded six, the second-fewest in the league, and kept a clean sheet at Sunderland last Sunday. The run that follows is softer: Ipswich away, then Nottingham Forest at home and Fulham away. Rayan is a pick for the next four weeks rather than the next four days.

Sandro Tonali (Tottenham, home vs Crystal Palace)

Tonali is the unglamorous one. He costs 5.3m, is owned by 1.9 percent, and has no goals and one assist. What he does have is 78 defensive contributions in eight starts, close to ten a match, which puts him near the threshold that earns midfielders two points a week. He reached it at Stamford Bridge for five points, with Spurs keeping a clean sheet. He has also created 1.22 expected assists, more than his one assist suggests.

The fixtures do the rest. Tottenham have the kindest five-week run in the league, averaging 2.4: Crystal Palace and Ipswich at home, Leeds and Sunderland away, then Fulham at home. Palace have conceded 19, the most in the division, and nine of them in four away matches. Spurs have kept three clean sheets, so Tonali’s floor includes the occasional clean sheet point as well. The ceiling is lower than the other two. The floor is higher.

None of these is a rebuild. They are last-slot punts that pay best if the crowd arrives late. Ownership moves fastest in the final day before a deadline, and this one is 11:00 GMT on Saturday, 31 October, ninety minutes before Chelsea host Manchester United. Villa’s pre-match team news is the one to watch before committing to Manzambi.