Gameweek 8 tested the armband, and the armband held. Erling Haaland scored at Villa Park, his seventh consecutive gameweek with a goal, and returned eight points before the captaincy doubled them. Manchester City still lost 2-1, their first league defeat of the season, to two goals from Nicolas Jackson. The rest of this column’s calls fared worse. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, the second choice, managed two points in a goalless draw at Sunderland. Joao Pedro, the hold, injured his thigh in training on the Friday and did not play. Pedro Neto, the differential, collected three. Bukayo Saka, the fade, did not play either. A fade that never takes the pitch is correct in the way a stopped clock is correct.
The average score fell from 59 to 45. City and Arsenal are level on 21 points, with City top on goal difference. Brighton lost 2-0 at Anfield and sit third on 16. They now visit the Etihad for the second time in four days, having gone out of the League Cup there on Wednesday on penalties after a 2-2 draw.
Brighton have already seen this City side once this week. They have not seen Haaland.
GW8 SCORELINES
Ipswich Town 1-1 Nottingham Forest: Enciso and Neco Williams score in Friday’s opener
Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City: Jackson twice, either side of Haaland’s equaliser, and City’s perfect start is over
Arsenal 2-0 Everton: Gabriel and Konsa, two centre-backs, and Gabriel takes 17 points
Coventry City 0-1 Fulham: Bobb scores, and Coventry stay 19th
Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham Hotspur: a Penders own goal and Tel, and Palmer is sent off for two bookings
Crystal Palace 0-2 Newcastle United: Barnes and Osula
Hull City 1-1 Brentford: McBurnie scores, Ouattara replies
Liverpool 2-0 Brighton: Isak and an own goal from Gross
Manchester United 0-3 Bournemouth: Rayan, Tavernier and Evanilson, with Fernandes on the bench for all 90 minutes
Sunderland 0-0 Leeds United: Calvert-Lewin blanks, and Sunderland keep their second clean sheet
The Top Pick: Erling Haaland
City host Brighton at 15:00 GMT on Saturday. Haaland has nine league goals from 6.09 expected goals, and he has scored in every gameweek since a blank on the opening weekend. He takes City’s penalties. He was left out of Wednesday’s cup tie entirely, along with Dias, Gvardiol, Anderson and Donnarumma, so he arrives with a full week’s rest since Villa Park.
Brighton are the hardest home fixture City have had. They have conceded seven in eight, the third-fewest in the league behind Arsenal and Leeds, with five clean sheets. Away from home the record is looser: six conceded in four. City have won all four league matches at the Etihad, scoring 11 and conceding six.
Why This Week
The defeat at Villa cost City three points and cost Haaland nothing: he scored and took two bonus points. The fixture is tougher than Villa on paper, and the case does not need it to be easy. At 78.3 percent ownership, an armband anywhere else is a bet against the majority in a week when the majority holds the better evidence. Antoine Semenyo is still out with a knee injury, which narrows City’s options without touching Haaland’s role.
Brighton have scored 23, more than anyone in the division. A City clean sheet is not the safe part of this bet. Haaland is.
The Next-Best Case: Cole Palmer
Chelsea host Manchester United at 12:30 GMT on Saturday. Palmer was sent off against Tottenham for two second-half bookings, but the ban was served in Wednesday’s League Cup tie at Anfield, so he is available. He takes Chelsea’s penalties. United are one of two sides without a clean sheet this season and have conceded 13 in eight. They lost 3-0 at home to Bournemouth on Sunday with their captain unused on the bench, and have gone eight matches without a win in all competitions. Chelsea have scored 11 in four home league games, though they failed to score in the last one.
The caution is Palmer himself. Two goals and four assists from 1.50 expected goals is a thin return for a £9.8m player. Chelsea will also be without Joao Pedro, ruled out with a thigh injury probably until after the November international break. The goals have to come from somewhere, and Palmer is the obvious place, which is either the argument for him or against him. At 27.3 percent ownership he is a mild differential rather than a safe one. If you do not own him, Marcus Tavernier at home to Leeds is the alternative. He has five goals and has scored in consecutive gameweeks, but Leeds have conceded six all season, the second-fewest in the division.
Hold, Don’t Chase: Alexander Isak
Isak has scored in consecutive gameweeks and took nine points against Brighton. He has six league goals from 4.27 expected goals and is owned by 17.2 percent of managers. Liverpool host Arsenal at 16:30 GMT on Sunday. Arsenal have conceded five, the fewest in the league, and kept clean sheets in three of their four away matches.
The form is real. The fixture is the worst a striker can draw. Keep him, play him, and leave the armband where it is.
Fade This Week: Bruno Fernandes
Fernandes was dropped for Sunday’s defeat to Bournemouth after publicly criticising his manager’s tactics following a 4-1 loss at Como, and did not come off the bench. The two have since held clear-the-air talks, and he is reported to be back in contention for Saturday. He still takes United’s penalties, and Chelsea have conceded 15, so the fixture is not the problem. The problem is a player whose form figure, his average over the last month, reads 0.7, in a side that has not won in eight. At 24.0 percent ownership, plenty of managers will be tempted by the penalties. A captain whose place depends on a reconciliation is not a captain. Bench him if you have the cover. Do not hand him the armband.
The Call
1. Erling Haaland, home vs Brighton
2. Cole Palmer, home vs Manchester United
3. Alexander Isak, home vs Arsenal
Differential: Nicolas Jackson, home vs Fulham, who scored twice against City for 13 points and is owned by 13.6 percent of managers. He has scored in three of the last four gameweeks, and with Ollie Watkins sold to Al Hilal the central role is his. Fulham have conceded only four in four away games, so the fixture is the risk
Fade: Bruno Fernandes, away at Chelsea
Deadline is 11:00 GMT on Saturday, 31 October, ninety minutes before Chelsea host Manchester United. That is a return to the usual Saturday morning after last week’s Friday evening, and the clocks are already back, so every time this week is GMT. Newcastle and Everton close the gameweek on Monday night. Friday’s press conferences are the last word on Fernandes before you commit.
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