GW8 Fixture Analysis: Leeds Have the Run, Brighton Have the Problem

Gameweek 8 opens on Friday night, when Ipswich host Nottingham Forest, and runs to Sunday evening, with the clocks going back in between. Last week’s fixture calls mostly held. Manchester City beat Ipswich, if less comfortably than 3-2 suggests. Chelsea’s attack run started with a 2-0 win at Everton, the side this column named as having the worst run, and Fulham’s second attempt at a soft spell produced a 1-0 win over Hull. The trap was Tottenham, who were supposed to be a fixture-based illusion and beat Coventry 3-1. This week the five-game window moves to Gameweeks 8 to 12, the last run before the November international break, and it reshuffles the table.

The kindest run in the league belongs to the side that has conceded 14. Fixture ratings measure the opponent, not the defence.

The Best Run: Leeds United

Leeds average 2.8 on the official ratings across Sunderland away, Bournemouth away, Tottenham at home, Chelsea away and Coventry at home. Only Chelsea rates above a 3. What makes the run useful rather than merely kind is the defence. Leeds have conceded six in seven, the third-fewest in the league behind Arsenal and Brighton, and Sunderland, their first opponent, have the worst expected goals against in the division. Jayden Bogle, at 4.7m with two goals and four clean sheets, is the obvious way in. The attack is the weak point, with nine goals in seven, which is why the Captain Recommendations column treats Dominic Calvert-Lewin as a fixture pick with a caveat rather than a banker.

The Attack Run: Chelsea, Again

Chelsea’s run rates an ordinary 3.0, but the opponents are the right kind for attackers: Tottenham and Manchester United at home, Sunderland away, Leeds at home and Nottingham Forest away. United have not kept a clean sheet all season, Sunderland are the softest defence by expected goals, and Spurs have conceded ten. Chelsea have scored 17. The defensive side changed this week, and not for the better: Emiliano Martinez fractured his jaw at Everton and is not expected back until mid-December, Reece James is out with a knee injury, and Chelsea have kept one clean sheet in seven. Buy the attack. Leave the defence alone.

The Worst Run: Brighton

Brighton, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Newcastle share the toughest average at 3.4, and Brighton’s matters most because so many managers own it. Liverpool away and Manchester City away come first, rated 4 and 5, followed by Brentford at home, Hull away and Newcastle at home. Pascal Gross is owned by 45.5 percent of managers and Maxim De Cuyper by 41.3 percent, and both were among the most-bought players this week after the 5-0 win over Palace. Brighton have the most clean sheets in the league, five, and the joint-fewest goals conceded, which is the argument for holding. Anfield followed by the Etihad, where City have won all four league matches, is the argument for not buying now.

The Runs That Aren’t: Coventry and Sunderland

Coventry have the kindest run of anyone, averaging 2.6: Fulham, Sunderland and Crystal Palace at home, Everton and Leeds away. They have also conceded 14 in seven, and their expected goals against of 11.33 says that was not bad luck. Sunderland average 2.8 and are bottom with four points and the league’s worst expected goals against, 14.30, more than two per match. Both sides play each other in Gameweek 9. A kind run is an opportunity for the attackers facing them, not for anyone wearing their shirts.

What This Means for Transfers

Leeds defenders are the cleanest fixture buy of the week, and Chelsea attackers remain the best attacking one. Brighton assets are holds, not buys, until the Manchester City match is out of the way. Manchester City’s own run averages 3.2 and ends at Arsenal in Gameweek 12, so the case for City attackers is the attackers, not the schedule. Coventry and Sunderland are opponents to target, not teams to own. The fixture list narrows the shortlist. The defensive numbers decide what is left on it.