Gameweek 7 went the way the armband said it would. Erling Haaland scored twice against Ipswich, his sixth consecutive gameweek with a goal, and returned 13 points before the captaincy doubled them. About 724,000 managers played the Triple Captain on him and banked 39. The rest of this column’s calls were less tidy. Joao Pedro, the second choice, managed two points at Everton while Pedro Neto scored both goals. Bukayo Saka collected three at Forest and has since been listed with a thigh injury. Jeremy Doku, the differential, added an assist for six. Bruno Fernandes, the fade, scored one point at Leeds. The fade was the only call that needed no explanation.
Manchester City are now seven from seven on 21 points, three clear of Arsenal and five clear of Brighton, who put five past Crystal Palace. The fixture list sends City to Villa Park, where Aston Villa have not won all season.
Villa have not won at home, and Haaland has not stopped scoring since August. The fixture is harder than Ipswich. The answer is not.
GW7 SCORELINES
Everton 0-2 Chelsea: Neto scores twice, and Joao Pedro’s backers get two points
Brentford 1-2 Liverpool: Munoz and Isak score, and Brentford finish with nine after reds for Janelt and Yarmoliuk
Fulham 1-0 Hull City: Iwobi scores, and Fulham hold on after Sessegnon is sent off
Manchester City 3-2 Ipswich Town: Haaland twice and Foden, with Maeda and Flemming making it uncomfortable
Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa: Manzambi scores, and Villa keep their second clean sheet, both away
Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland: Tavernier and Evanilson score, Danso is sent off, and Sunderland stay bottom
Brighton 5-0 Crystal Palace: Hinshelwood, Gomez, Ayari, Kostoulas and an own goal
Leeds United 1-1 Manchester United: Calvert-Lewin scores, Mbeumo equalises, Fernandes blanks again
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal: Madueke scores from Rice’s pass, and Saka finishes with no expected goals at all
Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 Coventry City: Marmoush, Davies and Maddison score, Rudoni replies
The Top Pick: Erling Haaland
City travel to Aston Villa for the 12:30 BST kick-off on Saturday. Haaland has eight league goals, three more than anyone else, from 5.69 expected goals, and he has scored in every gameweek since a blank in Gameweek 1. He takes City’s penalties. Villa sit 12th on eight points. They have conceded 11 in seven matches, five of them in three home games, where the record reads two defeats and a draw. Both of their clean sheets came away from home, the latest in Saturday’s 1-0 win at Newcastle.
City’s away form is the other half of the case. They have played three league matches on the road and won all three: 4-1 at Crystal Palace, 1-0 at Old Trafford and 3-0 at Anfield. One goal conceded across the three.
Why This Week
Villa are not Ipswich, and the case does not need them to be. City have scored in all seven league matches and Haaland in six straight gameweeks. At 76.9 percent ownership, an armband anywhere else is a bet against the majority in a week when the majority holds the better evidence. Antoine Semenyo is out with a knee injury and Nico O’Reilly is a 75 percent doubt, which narrows City’s options without touching Haaland’s role.
The early kick-off means you will know how the armband went before most of your team has played. Whether that is a comfort depends on the result.
The Next-Best Case: Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Leeds visit Sunderland at 16:30 GMT on Sunday, the clocks having gone back that morning. Sunderland are bottom on four points and have conceded 14 in seven. By expected goals against they are the worst defence in the division at 14.30, more than two per match. They will also be without Danso, sent off at Bournemouth and suspended until 31 October. Calvert-Lewin takes Leeds’ penalties, has three goals from 3.60 expected goals, and scored against Manchester United last Sunday.
The caution is Leeds. They have scored nine in seven and lost two of their three away matches. Calvert-Lewin’s gameweek scores read 1, 8, 1, 10, 2, 2, 9: he either scores or does very little. At 23.5 percent ownership he is a mild differential rather than a safe one. If you do not own him, Bryan Mbeumo at home to Bournemouth on Sunday is the alternative. He has scored in consecutive gameweeks and leads all midfielders with 3.96 expected goals, though Fernandes keeps first call on penalties. Bournemouth have conceded 13, but from only 8.12 expected goals against, so some of that is bad luck that may not repeat.
Hold, Don’t Chase: Joao Pedro
Pedro is owned by 73 percent of managers and was the most popular vice-captain last week. He returned two points at Everton from 0.28 expected goals while Neto, owned by under three percent, took 15. Chelsea host Tottenham at 17:30 BST on Saturday, and Spurs have conceded ten in seven, four of them in three away matches. The fixture is fine. Chelsea’s goals are the problem: 17 of them this season, spread across Pedro, Rogers, Neto and Palmer, who takes the penalties.
Five goals and three assists make Pedro a fixture in any team. They do not make him a captain against Haaland’s ownership. Keep him, play him, and leave the armband where it is.
Fade This Week: Bukayo Saka
Last week this column said to hold Saka and keep the armband elsewhere. He produced three points at the City Ground from 0.00 expected goals, his third straight blank, and was then listed with a thigh injury and a 50 percent chance of playing. He has not scored since Gameweek 4. Arsenal host Everton at 15:00 BST on Saturday, and Everton have kept three clean sheets and conceded seven, joint fourth-fewest in the league. Arsenal’s winner at Forest came from Noni Madueke, set up by Declan Rice, which says the attack has other routes when Saka is quiet. A captain at 50 percent is a coin toss before a ball is kicked. Hold him if he is fit. Do not hand him the armband.
The Call
1. Erling Haaland, away at Aston Villa
2. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, away at Sunderland
3. Joao Pedro, home vs Tottenham Hotspur
Differential: Pedro Neto, home vs Tottenham Hotspur, who scored twice at Everton for 15 points and is owned by 2.7 percent of managers. He has started six of seven and played the full 90 once, so the minutes are the risk
Fade: Bukayo Saka, home vs Everton
Deadline is 18:30 BST on Friday, 23 October, ninety minutes before Ipswich host Nottingham Forest. That is earlier than the usual Saturday morning, so the Thursday and Friday press conferences are the last word on Saka before you commit. The clocks go back on Sunday, and Sunday’s kick-off times are in GMT.
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