Gameweek 6 settled the captaincy argument in the least interesting way available. Erling Haaland scored at Anfield, as he has in every gameweek since the opener, and the 4.8 million managers who captained him banked the points. This site backed Bukayo Saka against Leeds and floated Bruno Fernandes as the differential armband. Saka blanked, Fernandes blanked, and Arsenal still won 2-1 on goals from Riccardo Calafiori and Bruno Guimaraes. The record shows that about 536,000 managers followed Saka into a two-point afternoon. This column is part of that record.
The table now reads Manchester City on 18 points from six wins, Arsenal on 15 and Brighton on 13. The fixture list responds to City’s form by handing them Ipswich Town at the Etihad.
Ipswich have not kept a clean sheet all season, and Haaland has scored in five straight gameweeks. Some armband decisions are not decisions.
GW6 SCORELINES
Arsenal 2-1 Leeds United: Calafiori and Guimaraes score, Justin replies for Leeds, and Saka’s armband blanks
Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford: a point each, and Villa stay stuck in 16th
Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth: Joao Pedro scores twice as Bournemouth drop into the bottom three
Ipswich Town 2-1 Fulham: a third win of the season for Ipswich, and Fulham are bottom
Sunderland 0-2 Brighton: De Cuyper scores as Brighton lead the league for goals and clean sheets
Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur: Mbeumo scores, Solanke equalises, Fernandes blanks again
Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest: Kamada, Lerma and Pino score as Forest slide further
Hull City 2-2 Everton: Belloumi scores for Hull, Barry and Dewsbury-Hall keep Everton unbeaten
Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City: Haaland, Doku and Cherki score to make it six wins from six
Coventry City 4-1 Newcastle United: Newcastle’s second 4-1 defeat of the season
The Top Pick: Erling Haaland
Manchester City host Ipswich Town at 15:00 BST on Saturday, and nothing about that sentence needs a qualifier. City have won all six league matches. Haaland leads the division with six goals and has scored in five consecutive gameweeks, most recently at Liverpool, where he converted his one and only shot on target. Ipswich have conceded 12 goals in six matches, have not kept a clean sheet, and have allowed 20 big chances at an expected goals against figure of 10.79. Haaland collects that kind of chance for a living.
Why This Week
The case is the fixture, the form and the finishing, and all three point the same way. City’s attack is also producing from other places: Cherki has four league goals and Doku scored at Anfield, so a quiet afternoon for Haaland does not mean a quiet afternoon for the team. The risk is the one that has always existed, a single blank. At roughly 75 percent ownership, captaining him protects rank as much as it chases it.
Anyone still holding the Triple Captain will ask whether this is the week. That is a chip question, and the Chip Strategy piece answers it.
The Next-Best Case: Joao Pedro
Chelsea open the gameweek at Everton at 12:30 BST, and Joao Pedro arrives with five goals, two of them against Bournemouth on Saturday. At 7.7m he is level with Haaland on 45 points among forwards, which tells you what the price difference is buying. Chelsea have scored 15 in six matches, third in the league, and Everton are unbeaten, with two wins and four draws, though they have still conceded five. The pattern around Chelsea does not change: their own defence has now shipped 13, so this is a fixture where goals tend to arrive at both ends.
Two cautions. Pedro was owned by roughly 64 percent of managers going into Gameweek 6, so captaining him is a cheaper route to the same points rather than a differential. And the early kick-off means no information from any other match before you commit. A reasonable second choice, and not a reason to leave Haaland alone at home.
Hold, Don’t Chase: Bukayo Saka
Saka’s blank against Leeds was not a verdict on the player. Through the first five gameweeks he ranked second in the league for shots on target and first for shots on target from inside the box, and nothing about his role has changed. Arsenal travel to Nottingham Forest on Sunday at 16:30 BST, and Forest are 15th with five points, eight goals conceded and a 3-1 defeat at Crystal Palace behind them. The fixture is good. The form of the armband it feeds is, for now, three goals and 34 points.
He is owned by around 17 percent of managers, so a Saka captaincy is a genuine differential against the Haaland majority. That is a position worth taking only if you are chasing rank. If you are protecting it, hold him in the team and keep the armband elsewhere.
Fade This Week: Bruno Fernandes
This site called Fernandes the differential armband a week ago, on the strength of two assists for Portugal in Copenhagen. That case did not survive contact with Tottenham. He blanked at Old Trafford in a 1-1 draw, and by one count he has now blanked in five of United’s six league matches at 11.9m. United are winless in five across all competitions and travel to Leeds on Sunday at 14:00 BST, where the home side have conceded five in six and are among the league’s tighter defences. Penalties and set pieces give him a floor. They have not given him much of a ceiling this season. Save the armband for a week when the evidence is more recent than a hat-trick against Ipswich in August.
The Call
1. Erling Haaland, home vs Ipswich Town
2. Joao Pedro, away at Everton
3. Bukayo Saka, away at Nottingham Forest
Differential: Jeremy Doku, home vs Ipswich Town, who scored at Liverpool and is owned by under one percent of managers. A rank-chasing punt, and a winger who is not Haaland is always a rotation risk
Fade: Bruno Fernandes, away at Leeds United
Deadline is 11:00 BST on Saturday, 17 October, ninety minutes before Everton host Chelsea. The armband and the team sheet lock together, so check the Thursday and Friday press conferences for Saka and Fernandes before you commit, because Sunday’s team news will arrive too late to help.
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